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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
43
52
0
3
0
3
0
8
42
50
0
20
85
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
43
52
0
3
0
3
0
8
42
50
0
20
85
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
41
50
0
3
0
3
0
8
40
48
0
19
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
41
50
0
3
0
3
0
8
40
48
0
19
81
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.15 0.59
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.15 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.122 true Kuipers skill score: 0.122
threat score:
0.000 0.150 0.452
threat score:
0.000 0.150 0.452
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.150 0.494
probability of detection:
0.000 0.150 0.494
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.160
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.160
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00