CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
12
29
50
1
0
0
1
10
17
27
54
20
29
56
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
12
29
50
1
0
0
1
10
17
27
54
20
29
56
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
11
28
48
1
0
0
1
10
16
26
51
19
28
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
11
28
48
1
0
0
1
10
16
26
51
19
28
53
100

hitrate: 0.343 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.03 0.96
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.03 0.96
Heidke skill score: 0.014 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.039 true Heidke skill score: -0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.014 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.041 true Kuipers skill score: -0.041
threat score:
0.148 0.000 0.325
threat score:
0.148 0.000 0.325
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.009 -0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.009 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.450 0.000 0.482
probability of detection:
0.450 0.000 0.482
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.820 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.820 1.000 0.500
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00