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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
23
32
69
1
2
16
19
1
6
9
16
16
31
57
104

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
23
32
69
1
2
16
19
1
6
9
16
16
31
57
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
22
31
66
1
2
15
18
1
6
9
15
15
30
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
22
31
66
1
2
15
18
1
6
9
15
15
30
55
100

hitrate: 0.240 hitrate: 0.240
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.31 0.61 0.28
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.31 0.61 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.139 Heidke skill score: -0.139
true Heidke skill score: -0.001 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.139 Kuipers skill score: -0.139
true Kuipers skill score: -0.001 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.197 0.042 0.141
threat score:
0.197 0.042 0.141
equitable threat score:
0.056 -0.087 0.004
equitable threat score:
0.056 -0.087 0.004
probability of detection:
0.875 0.065 0.158
probability of detection:
0.875 0.065 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.797 0.895 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.797 0.895 0.438
samples: 104 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00