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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
44
49
0
0
0
0
3
2
50
55
6
4
94
104

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
44
49
0
0
0
0
3
2
50
55
6
4
94
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
42
47
0
0
0
0
3
2
48
53
6
4
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
42
47
0
0
0
0
3
2
48
53
6
4
90
100

hitrate: 0.510 hitrate: 0.510
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.17 0.00 0.59
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.17 0.00 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.264 Heidke skill score: 0.264
true Heidke skill score: 0.009 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.264 Kuipers skill score: 0.264
true Kuipers skill score: 0.025 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.058 0.000 0.505
threat score:
0.058 0.000 0.505
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.000 0.006
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.000 0.006
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.532
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.532
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.939 0.000 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.939 0.000 0.091
samples: 104 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00