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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
11
13
2
1
46
49
2
3
57
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
11
13
2
1
46
49
2
3
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
18
21
3
2
74
79
3
5
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
18
21
3
2
74
79
3
5
92
100

hitrate: 0.774 hitrate: 0.774
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.33 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.33 0.86
Heidke skill score: 0.661 Heidke skill score: 0.661
true Heidke skill score: 0.142 true Heidke skill score: 0.142
Kuipers skill score: 0.661 Kuipers skill score: 0.661
true Kuipers skill score: 0.247 true Kuipers skill score: 0.247
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.767
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.767
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.103 0.064
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.103 0.064
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.807
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.807
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.846 0.061
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.846 0.061
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00