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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
0
3
21
24
0
2
19
21
1
7
54
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
0
3
21
24
0
2
19
21
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
23
27
0
5
34
39
0
3
31
34
2
11
87
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
23
27
0
5
34
39
0
3
31
34
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
17.00 3.43 0.39
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
17.00 3.43 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.056 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.042 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.056 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.122 true Kuipers skill score: 0.122
threat score:
0.059 0.107 0.339
threat score:
0.059 0.107 0.339
equitable threat score:
0.043 0.011 0.019
equitable threat score:
0.043 0.011 0.019
probability of detection:
1.000 0.429 0.352
probability of detection:
1.000 0.429 0.352
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.875 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.875 0.095
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00