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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
7
3
3
13
11
14
18
43
21
19
24
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
7
3
3
13
11
14
18
43
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
13
11
5
5
20
17
22
28
67
33
30
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
13
11
5
5
20
17
22
28
67
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.68 1.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.68 1.79
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.033 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.115 0.103 0.367
threat score:
0.115 0.103 0.367
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.034 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.034 0.057
probability of detection:
0.143 0.158 0.750
probability of detection:
0.143 0.158 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.769 0.581
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.769 0.581
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00