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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
4
15
2
7
4
13
9
16
11
36
13
32
19
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
4
15
2
7
4
13
9
16
11
36
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
6
23
3
11
6
20
14
25
17
56
20
50
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
6
23
3
11
6
20
14
25
17
56
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.15 0.41 1.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.15 0.41 1.89
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.006 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.077 0.184 0.250
threat score:
0.077 0.184 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.046 0.016 0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.046 0.016 0.009
probability of detection:
0.154 0.219 0.579
probability of detection:
0.154 0.219 0.579
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.462 0.694
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.462 0.694
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00