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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
34
7
47
1
1
2
4
2
6
7
15
9
41
16
66

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
34
7
47
1
1
2
4
2
6
7
15
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
52
11
71
2
2
3
6
3
9
11
23
14
62
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
52
11
71
2
2
3
6
3
9
11
23
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.212 hitrate: 0.212
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.22 0.10 0.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.22 0.10 0.94
Heidke skill score: -0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.027 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.041 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.120 0.023 0.292
threat score:
0.120 0.023 0.292
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.036 0.165
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.036 0.165
probability of detection:
0.667 0.024 0.438
probability of detection:
0.667 0.024 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.872 0.750 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.872 0.750 0.533
samples: 66 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00