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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
10
17
2
5
9
16
3
10
19
32
8
19
38
65

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
10
17
2
5
9
16
3
10
19
32
8
19
38
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
15
26
3
8
14
25
5
15
29
49
12
29
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
15
26
3
8
14
25
5
15
29
49
12
29
58
100

hitrate: 0.415 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.12 0.84 0.84
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.12 0.84 0.84
Heidke skill score: 0.123 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: 0.039 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.123 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: 0.042 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.136 0.167 0.373
threat score:
0.136 0.167 0.373
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.013 0.009
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.013 0.009
probability of detection:
0.375 0.263 0.500
probability of detection:
0.375 0.263 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.688 0.406
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.688 0.406
samples: 65 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00