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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
24
8
47
1
3
5
9
0
4
4
8
16
31
17
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
24
8
47
1
3
5
9
0
4
4
8
16
31
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
38
13
73
2
5
8
14
0
6
6
13
25
48
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
38
13
73
2
5
8
14
0
6
6
13
25
48
27
100

hitrate: 0.344 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.29 0.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.29 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.016 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.082 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.016 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.093 true Kuipers skill score: 0.093
threat score:
0.312 0.081 0.190
threat score:
0.312 0.081 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.090 -0.042 0.099
equitable threat score:
0.090 -0.042 0.099
probability of detection:
0.938 0.097 0.235
probability of detection:
0.938 0.097 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.681 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.681 0.667 0.500
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00