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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
23
18
45
3
1
4
8
2
3
7
12
9
27
29
65

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
23
18
45
3
1
4
8
2
3
7
12
9
27
29
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
35
28
69
5
2
6
12
3
5
11
18
14
42
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
35
28
69
5
2
6
12
3
5
11
18
14
42
45
100

hitrate: 0.185 hitrate: 0.185
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.30 0.41
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.30 0.41
Heidke skill score: -0.223 Heidke skill score: -0.223
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.223 Kuipers skill score: -0.223
true Kuipers skill score: -0.073 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.080 0.029 0.206
threat score:
0.080 0.029 0.206
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.076 0.057
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.076 0.057
probability of detection:
0.444 0.037 0.241
probability of detection:
0.444 0.037 0.241
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.911 0.875 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.911 0.875 0.417
samples: 65 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00