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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
10
31
44
3
3
6
12
0
4
5
9
6
17
42
65

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
10
31
44
3
3
6
12
0
4
5
9
6
17
42
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
15
48
68
5
5
9
18
0
6
8
14
9
26
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
15
48
68
5
5
9
18
0
6
8
14
9
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.169 hitrate: 0.169
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.33 0.71 0.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.33 0.71 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.246 Heidke skill score: -0.246
true Heidke skill score: -0.039 true Heidke skill score: -0.039
Kuipers skill score: -0.246 Kuipers skill score: -0.246
true Kuipers skill score: -0.061 true Kuipers skill score: -0.061
threat score:
0.064 0.115 0.109
threat score:
0.064 0.115 0.109
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.006 -0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.006 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.500 0.176 0.119
probability of detection:
0.500 0.176 0.119
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.932 0.750 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.932 0.750 0.444
samples: 65 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00