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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
14
24
60
1
0
2
3
0
0
1
1
23
14
27
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
14
24
60
1
0
2
3
0
0
1
1
23
14
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
34
22
38
94
2
0
3
5
0
0
2
2
36
22
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
34
22
38
94
2
0
3
5
0
0
2
2
36
22
42
100

hitrate: 0.359 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.61 0.21 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.61 0.21 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.039 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: 0.009 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.039 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: 0.009 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.361 0.000 0.037
threat score:
0.361 0.000 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.011 -0.040 0.022
equitable threat score:
0.011 -0.040 0.022
probability of detection:
0.957 0.000 0.037
probability of detection:
0.957 0.000 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.633 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.633 1.000 0.000
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00