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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
1
0
6
5
1
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
13
25
51
5
1
0
6
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
83
17
0
100
83
17
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
23
44
89
9
2
0
11
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.64 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.012 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.745 1.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00