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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
2
2
0
4
5
1
1
7
8
4
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
10
16
20
46
5
1
1
7
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
13
27
13
13
0
27
33
7
7
47
53
27
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
4
7
18
28
35
81
9
2
2
12
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.56 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.066 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.091 0.333 0.111
threat score:
0.053 0.333 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.128 0.189 -0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.044 -0.070
probability of detection:
0.125 0.500 0.333
probability of detection:
0.062 0.889 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.500 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.652 0.857
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00