CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
4
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
17
18
53
2
1
1
4
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
25
25
100
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
30
32
93
4
2
2
7
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.94 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.315 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.750
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00