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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
7
9
1
1
7
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
20
17
48
1
1
7
9
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
11
78
100
11
11
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
35
30
84
2
2
12
16
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.474
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.29 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: 0.211
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.156
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: 0.211
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.151
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.778
threat score:
0.000 0.408 0.269
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.074 0.145
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.292
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.583 0.222
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00