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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
19
18
15
52
1
1
0
2
20
20
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
29
43
14
14
0
29
14
14
0
29
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
33
32
26
91
2
2
0
4
35
35
30
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.60 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.273 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.281 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.207 0.045 -0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.048 -0.007 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.654 1.000
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00