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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
2
2
1
1
4
2
4
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
9
19
24
52
2
1
1
4
11
21
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
0
14
0
29
0
29
29
14
14
57
29
57
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
16
33
42
91
4
2
2
7
19
37
44
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.50 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.48 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.352 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.300 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.005 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.905 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 0.750
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00