CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
3
2
6
2
3
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
8
14
28
50
1
3
2
6
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
0
13
13
13
38
25
75
25
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
25
49
88
2
5
4
11
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.94 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.024 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.024 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.100 0.264 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.429 -0.103 -0.053
equitable threat score:
0.084 -0.024 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.100 0.824 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.720 0.667
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00