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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
2
4
7
2
3
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
8
15
26
49
1
2
4
7
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
0
10
10
20
10
20
40
70
20
30
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
26
46
86
2
4
7
12
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.67 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.88 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.298 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.274 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.500 0.250 0.500
threat score:
0.100 0.294 0.121
equitable threat score:
0.444 0.118 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.084 0.011 0.011
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 0.800
probability of detection:
0.100 0.882 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.429
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00