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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
5
3
9
1
5
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
10
31
48
1
5
3
9
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
18
9
45
27
82
9
45
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
18
54
84
2
9
5
16
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.40 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.20 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.128
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.314 true Kuipers skill score: -0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.149 -0.158
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.792 0.667
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00