CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
1
1
1
4
3
8
1
4
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
7
11
29
47
1
4
3
8
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
18
18
0
0
9
9
9
36
27
73
9
36
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
12
19
51
82
2
7
5
14
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.25 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 3.13 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.313 true Heidke skill score: -0.086
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.309 true Kuipers skill score: -0.108
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.065 -0.078 -0.205
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.035 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.766 0.625
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00