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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
1
1
2
3
6
1
10
3
8
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
9
10
25
44
3
6
1
10
12
17
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
13
20
0
7
7
13
20
40
7
67
20
53
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
16
18
44
77
5
11
2
18
21
30
49
100

hitrate: 0.133 hitrate: 0.193
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.59 0.36
Heidke skill score: -0.300 Heidke skill score: -0.211
true Heidke skill score: -0.219 true Heidke skill score: -0.200
Kuipers skill score: -0.300 Kuipers skill score: -0.211
true Kuipers skill score: -0.257 true Kuipers skill score: -0.215
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.196 0.027
equitable threat score:
-0.111 -0.008 -0.161
equitable threat score:
-0.044 -0.082 -0.122
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.588 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.900
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.773 0.900
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00