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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
3
1
0
4
2
7
1
10
5
9
4
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
10
9
24
43
2
7
1
10
12
17
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
17
22
17
6
0
22
11
39
6
56
28
50
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
18
16
42
75
4
12
2
18
21
30
49
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.44 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.53 0.36
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.237
true Heidke skill score: -0.263 true Heidke skill score: -0.223
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.237
true Kuipers skill score: -0.297 true Kuipers skill score: -0.241
threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.027
equitable threat score:
-0.141 -0.100 -0.113
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.100 -0.122
probability of detection:
0.000 0.111 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.529 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.900
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.791 0.900
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00