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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
0
0
1
1
3
3
0
6
5
3
3
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
9
15
23
47
3
3
0
6
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
0
18
36
0
0
9
9
27
27
0
55
45
27
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
7
16
26
40
82
5
5
0
11
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.61 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.238 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.244 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.300 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.073 -0.222
equitable threat score:
0.068 0.004 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.143 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.681 1.000
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00