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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
1
0
1
4
2
0
6
4
3
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
17
15
17
49
4
2
0
6
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
22
22
0
11
0
11
44
22
0
67
44
33
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
30
26
30
86
7
4
0
11
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.88 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.241 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.269 true Kuipers skill score: -0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.174 0.250 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.011 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.694 1.000
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00