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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
3
3
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
18
14
16
48
3
1
1
5
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
22
22
44
0
0
0
0
33
11
11
56
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
4
7
32
25
28
84
5
2
2
9
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.82 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.275 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.235 0.000 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.063 -0.009 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.708 0.800
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00