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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
15
19
54
0
2
1
3
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
26
33
95
0
4
2
5
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.18 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.268 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.722 0.667
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00