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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
20
14
55
0
1
1
2
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
35
25
96
0
2
2
4
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.62 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.006
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.357 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.500
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00