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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
16
20
52
0
1
3
4
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
80
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
28
28
35
91
0
2
5
7
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.89 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.231 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.296 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.011 0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.692 0.250
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00