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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
0
3
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
15
18
50
0
3
4
7
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
57
100
0
43
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
26
32
88
0
5
7
12
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.78 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.429
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00