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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
11
21
24
56
0
0
0
0
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
100
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
19
37
42
98
0
0
0
0
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.55 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.368 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.017 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.955 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.000
samples: 1 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 1.75 %coverage: 100.00