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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
0
1
1
2
1
0
1
2
1
4
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
12
25
15
52
1
0
1
2
13
28
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
43
0
43
0
14
14
29
14
0
14
29
14
57
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
21
44
26
91
2
0
2
4
23
49
28
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.456
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 1.86 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.455 0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.037 0.176
equitable threat score:
-0.045 -0.018 0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.893 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.519 0.500
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00