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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
1
1
2
1
0
2
3
1
3
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
12
26
14
52
1
0
2
3
13
28
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
29
0
29
0
14
14
29
14
0
29
43
14
43
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
21
46
25
91
2
0
4
5
23
49
28
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.86 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.481 0.118
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.045 0.263
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.016 0.072
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.333
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00