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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
3
0
4
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
14
19
19
52
0
2
1
3
14
23
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
0
17
17
0
33
17
50
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
25
33
33
91
0
4
2
5
25
40
35
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.25 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.26 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: -0.073
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.154 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.057 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 0.667
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00