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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
4
3
8
1
5
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
13
18
17
48
1
4
3
8
14
23
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
0
10
10
10
40
30
80
10
50
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
23
32
30
84
2
7
5
14
25
40
35
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.20 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.09 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.129 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.138 true Kuipers skill score: -0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.091 -0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.041 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.783 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.625
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00