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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
9
4
3
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
14
15
18
47
3
3
3
9
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
30
30
30
90
40
30
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
26
32
82
5
5
5
16
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.61 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.056 0.300 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.039 0.004 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.833 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.681 0.667
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00