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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
7
3
3
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
15
15
19
49
2
3
2
7
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
25
38
25
88
38
38
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
26
26
33
86
4
5
4
12
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.72 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.149 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.056 0.288 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.238 0.000 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.039 -0.013 -0.025
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.833 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.714
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00