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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
5
1
8
2
6
1
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
12
20
49
2
5
1
8
19
17
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
11
22
56
11
89
22
67
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
21
35
86
4
9
2
14
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.17 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.88 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.060 true Heidke skill score: -0.116
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.120
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.062 0.016
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.066 -0.078
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.706 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.755 0.875
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00