CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
4
2
8
2
5
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
13
19
49
2
4
2
8
19
17
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
11
22
44
22
89
22
56
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
23
33
86
4
7
4
14
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.20 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.88 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 -0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.765 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.735 0.750
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00