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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
1
4
3
8
2
6
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
19
10
18
47
1
4
3
8
21
15
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
0
17
0
8
8
17
8
33
25
67
17
50
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
33
18
32
82
2
7
5
14
37
26
37
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.13 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: -0.055
threat score:
0.333 0.143 0.333
threat score:
0.045 0.192 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.060 0.002
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.750
probability of detection:
0.048 0.667 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.787 0.625
samples: 12 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 21.05 %coverage: 100.00