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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
1
1
0
1
4
5
1
2
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
11
9
29
49
0
1
4
5
12
11
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
11
33
0
0
11
11
0
11
44
56
11
22
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
19
16
51
86
0
2
7
9
21
19
60
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 4.45 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.217 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.071 0.176 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.250 -0.080 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.028 -0.011 0.032
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.083 0.818 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.816 0.200
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00