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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
3
2
1
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
10
10
31
51
0
0
3
3
12
11
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
13
0
38
0
0
25
25
0
0
38
38
25
13
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
5
18
18
54
89
0
0
5
5
21
19
60
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 2.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 4.64 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.415 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.154 0.192 0.088
equitable threat score:
0.556 -0.091 0.360
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.004 0.038
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.167 0.909 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.804 0.000
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00