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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
5
8
1
5
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
4
6
36
46
0
3
5
8
5
11
41
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
18
0
27
0
0
0
0
0
27
45
73
9
45
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
7
11
63
81
0
5
9
14
9
19
72
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 4.18 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: 0.295 true Heidke skill score: -0.069
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: 0.329 true Kuipers skill score: -0.116
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.143 0.118 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.267 0.000 0.312
equitable threat score:
0.109 -0.068 -0.020
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.200 0.545 0.122
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.870 0.375
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00