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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
27
54
0
2
1
3
11
18
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
28
47
95
0
4
2
5
19
32
49
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.704 0.667
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00