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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
26
53
0
2
2
4
11
18
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
28
46
93
0
4
4
7
19
32
49
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.94 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.291 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.698 0.500
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00