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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
3
5
2
0
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
12
23
52
2
0
3
5
19
12
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
0
60
100
40
0
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
21
40
91
4
0
5
9
33
21
46
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.33 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.231 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.026 0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.115
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.769 0.400
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00