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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
3
5
2
1
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
17
11
23
51
2
0
3
5
19
12
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
0
17
0
0
0
0
33
0
50
83
33
17
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
30
19
40
89
4
0
5
9
33
21
46
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.25 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.053 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.212 0.107
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.006 0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.115
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.784 0.400
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00